Analysis: 'Bandits' fit be more serious security threat to Nigeria pass jihadists?

Nigeria still dey face heavy insecurity, most especially for di north wia militants wey dey linked to al-Qaeda and di Islamic State (IS) dey work togeda wit local criminal groups.

Four groups wey dey linked wit al-Qaeda wey dey operate for di konri. Dem be Boko Haram, Jamaat Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM), Jama'atu Ansarul Muslimina fi Biladis Sudan (Ansaru) and Boko Haram-allied Mahmuda.

Two groups wey dey linked wit IS wey Islamic State West African Province (Iswap) and Lakurawa also dey di kontri.

Attacks wey dey happun for di north-east dey normally linked to Boko Haram and Iswap. As for di noth-west and north-central, na Ansaru, Mahmuda, Lakurawa and JNIM dey run those sides.

Di criminal groups wey dem dey call bandits dey also mainly work for north-west and north-central.

Dem be ova 100 criminal groups wey dey do plenti attacks nad kidnaps for ransom.

Analysts say wetin cause dis groups na sake of poverty and unemployment. Dia activities bin first start small scale cattle stealing and to fight for small-small kasala dem bifor dem come increase to bigger and more organised operations.

Dis militant insurgency wetin dey ginger am na combination of religious ideology, political leanings, international jihadist groups and local wahala.

For both groups na social inequalities and poverty dey feed dem.

For December 2025, di federal govment bin label kidnappers, bandits and oda armed groups as terrorists wey put dem for inside di Nigeria counter-terrorism work.

Local tori pipo also don dey report say di so called bandits and jihadists dey collabo by say di criminal groups dey supply di militants wit weapons and fighters.

For 2025, tori be say Boko Haram form one cell wey get di group, dia official name, Jama'atu Ahlis Sunna Lidda'awati wal-Jihad (Jas) for di Shiroro Local Govment Area of Niger State.

Dis faction bin dey reported say dem dey work wit 'bandits' to fit get weapons and fighters. Dem bin dey also use di criminal knowlege for di area to run dia doings.

Local tori pipo, PremiumTimes bin report for July 2025 say Lakurawa group bin dey find dat kain collabo wit 'bandit' oga Bello Turji wey im gang dey connected wit attacks for north-western states.

Dis analysis go torchlight di number of attacks wey don dey atrributed to di jihadists and criminal groups. E go also torchight di pipo wey kpai for each attack and how dem take run di operation.

'Bandits' dey attack more by far pass militants

Data wey kasala monitor, ACLED gada show say criminal groups don kill 7,835 civilians for Nigeria between nuary 2025 and 16 April 2026. Dis na four times higher dan di number of pipo wey jihadists kill for di same time period. Jihadists kill 1,914 pipo.

Dis fit be sake of say di criminals dey run eight times more og di attacks of jihadists. Dis one mean say criminals dey run 3,747 attaks to jihadists 470 attacks.

Wetin dey ginger dis criminal groups na di ransom wey dem dey gt wen dem kidnap pipo so dem gatz dey run dia attacks against villages, travellers, churches and schools.

One report wey di geopolitical research firm, SB Morgen (SBM) Intelligence, bring come outside tok say Nigerians don pay at least $1.66m give kidnappers between July 2024 and June 2025 and e don make "banditry" to be like beta business.

Di killings dey normally happun for di attacks demselves but gangs dey also kill pipo wey dem don alreadi kidnap if dia familes no fit pay ransom. Dem dey also kill pipo wey no gree pay levies or dia informants.

Dis groups dey also run attacks just to pursue pipo from dia houses especially for north-central states wia dem active.

Di ACLED data no include di killings wey separatists dey do for south east, deaths by govment actors nad cults.

Militants carry out deadlier, organised atacks

Wetin dey drive militants na ideological, political and territorial goals. So. dem dey use beta planned and sustained kasala to di dia own area scata work, wey mean say dem dey get more casualty for dia attacks.

Militants get long term goal. All dia attacks na to forward dia worldview.

Di January 2024 - March 2026 ACLED data show say for evri jihadists attacks dem bin get four deaths per incidents to di criminals two per incidents.

For May 2025, militants kpai 123 pipo in 13 attacks wey put di deaths at 9.5 deaths per attacks.

Wetin criminal groups do for di north-western region wia dem pin for id period under review? Well, dem run 867 attacks for Zamfara State, 862 for Katsina, 472 for Kaduna, 455 for Sokoto and 413 for di north-central Benue state.

Militant attacks wey happun for di north-east na 404 raids wey dem bin record for Borno State, 62 for Yobe and 21 for Adamawa and di north-western Sokoto state bin record 52 militant attacks.

'Bandits' dey linked to 15 times more kidnapping

Between 1 January 2025 and 16 April 2026, criminal groups bin do 1,145 kidnapping attacks for Nigeria. Dis make am 15 times highher pass di number of kidnappings wey militants run wey be 79 according to ACLED.

For August 2025, criminal groups do 101 kindnapping raids for Nigeria. E go be di highest number of times dat kain tin don happun in a single month.

Militants highest number of kidnapping raids na for January 2025 and na 16 bin dey linked to dem.

Di "bandits" bin dey linked to mothly avetage of 62.9 kidnapping incidents between January 2024 and end of March 2026, meanwhile for militants for di same period dem bin dey liked to average of 2.6 kidnapping rainds.

For April and October 2024, militants bin no dey linked to any kidnapping attacks.

Local tori pipo dey normally call "unspecified number of pipo" wen dem dey tel di tori of who criminal group kidnap and even wen dem give number dem dey change am and even authorities no dey clear wit dia numbers.

Also, since dem no really get agenda, dem sef no dey tok how many dem kindnap so e dey make am hard to pinpoint how many pipo dem actually gbab.

But criminal grups don dey use social media to share misinformation and campaign so more young pipo go follow join dem.

Di data wey dey gathered for di analysis comot from ACLED (Armed Conflict Location & Event Data). Di data torchlight kasala against civillians by armed criminal groups, militia and jihadists from 1 January 2024 to 16 April 2026.

BBC Monitoring group all groups for Nigeria enta either criminal groups wey dem dey call "bandits" and jihadists.

Kasala wey involve govment forces no dey added except dem get civillians wey dey targetted. Dem also comot wia state forces target civillians.

Cults, separatist groups (IPOB: Indigenous Peoples of Biafra), vigilantes and political parties bin no even enta di anlysis.