Monthly Outlook

Although temperatures will stay above normal, they will gradually ease down closer to seasonal levels next week, when it will also become more unsettled.

However, drier and warmer weather may return by mid-June, with potential for a few hot days in places. Some thundery conditions may be possible later.

High temperatures should gradually ease

Wednesday will be hot again in parts of Wales and southern England but less so than Monday and Tuesday, and eastern and central areas of England along with Scotland and Northern Ireland should have more moderate temperatures. A few sharp showers are possible across Wales and Southwest England but much of the UK will be dry.

Thursday will be mostly fine aside from the odd shower over Northern Ireland and Scotland, and eastern and central England could warm up more than Wednesday.

High pressure should maintain warm weather across at least the southern half of the UK, especially central and southern England, and many areas will remain dry.

However, northern regions are going to become breezy, with rain moving in from the Atlantic, mostly affecting northern and western Scotland but potentially Northern Ireland as well.

Saturday could have isolated thundery showers flirting with southern England, while a broader band of rain may push across Northern Ireland, then into other western and northern regions later in the day. Sunday may turn more widely wet, breezy and cooler.

Unsettled and cooler

The first week of June should become unsettled as high pressure declines at times, allowing a series of Atlantic low pressure and frontal systems to move near or across the UK. These will bring periods of wet and windy weather, with some heavy or thundery rain or showers possible at times, and precipitation amounts are likely to be above-average for the time of year.

However, the northwest might see the brunt of the rain, with the southeast less wet.

As might be expected, it will be a cooler week, or at least much less warm, with temperatures closer to the seasonal average. There is a risk that even cooler air could move across, especially if the low pressure track turns out to be farther south.

In any case, somewhat chillier flows may be possible across some northern regions. However, the end of the week might see high pressure start to rebuild, with temperatures potentially beginning to rise again, at least across southern regions.

Further above-average warmth is probable

In the second week of June, the most probable situation is for high pressure to rebuild over Europe and near the UK, with drier-than-normal conditions overall. Occasional rain cannot be entirely ruled out anywhere but this should still be more likely in north and western regions.

Parts of Scotland in particular could be more susceptible to occasional wetter spells and perhaps near-average rainfall and temperatures. Most other areas should pan out warmer than normal, and the more southern regions of the country have a chance of another spike in heat at some point – although that's rather speculative at the moment.

The exact position of the expected high pressure remains important: if it were to become centred farther north, northwest, or west, then cooler weather would be possible.

Through and beyond the middle of June, warmer-than-average conditions will most probably continue, with further chances of some hot days in places. There is a possibility that high pressure may also build across Scandinavia, reinforcing warmer flows; and if high pressure weakens or nudges northwards across the UK then the door could open sufficiently for low pressure systems to creep in from the south.

This would bring an increasing chance of heavy showers and thunderstorms spreading northwards.

Friday's outlook will take another look at the expected rebuild of high pressure after the probable unsettled spell next week. We will see if there is better consensus on another warm-up by mid-month, and cast a look at late June's prospects.