Monthly Outlook

Changeable weather will continue into next week with occasional shots of chillier air but nothing long-lasting.

Drier conditions could develop later in April, with temperatures most likely to be generally near to a little above average.

Unsettled with day-to-day temperature variability

Scattered showers right across the country on Sunday with further blustery winds. Some showers will be briefly heavy with isolated thunderstorms and hail possible. Monday should have shower activity decreasing with lighter winds, and Tuesday will be largely dry and sunny after some early fog patches.

Through mid-week, a couple of bands of frontal rain may try to edge in from the Atlantic but it's questionable how far they will progress as they come up against developing high pressure.

By the weekend it's possible that high pressure could become centred near or over the UK, leading to largely dry and warmer conditions with just the odd shower possible here and there.

There is about a 30% chance chance, however, that high pressure fails to build as close to the UK. This would result in cooler and potentially wetter conditions continuing later in the week.

Most probably drier and warmer than average

In the latter part of April, high pressure should still feature somewhere near the UK but its exact position remains uncertain. Most probably, it will become centred further east, perhaps over Scandinavia and starting to extend towards Iceland with lower pressure to the west and southwest of the UK.

This should draw in some warm flows from the southerly quarter and perhaps hold Atlantic systems at bay, so it should be a drier week. There are also higher chances of some relatively calm periods, possibly leading to overnight fog patches.

That's not to say that it will be completely dry. It is possible that fronts could push closer to the UK, so the occasional rainy period cannot be ruled out, more especially in western and southwestern regions. There is also a possibility that high pressure builds more strongly towards Iceland than Scandinavia, or across the eastern Atlantic, which would result in cooler wind flows, with a 30 to 40% chance of that occurring.

Potentially turning wetter and cooler

During the end of April and early May, the confidence on high pressure alignment remains low. However, it is most likely to settle at higher latitudes, with a greater build of high pressure near Iceland and Greenland than over Scandinavia.

Precipitation amounts should average out near or still a little below normal, but as time goes by there will be increasing chances of wetter weather developing, more especially across the southern half of the UK.

Temperatures should mostly stay above normal for about another week but then potentially decline, with more seasonable values probable by the end of the period, and increasing chances of some stronger winds at times.

Alternatively, the high-latitude high pressure will weaken, with Atlantic systems becoming more influential – but that would still mean a wetter and cooler transition.

In Tuesday's update we will reassess the positioning of the expected high pressure, and its impact on the UK's temperature and rainfall.